Социальное объявление развития english

#CountryNumber of completed epochal cyclesDeveloping Epochal CyclePeriod (Phase of the Developing Epochal Cycle)Probability of Actualization of the Prospective Transient Period

Социальное объявление развития english



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cycle may be referred to the latter half of the 19th the first half of the 20th century. Its main content is the gradual transition from the industrial to post-industrial civilization. It is connected with the formalization of the structure of the classic bourgeois society (the revolutions of 1848-1849) and the corresponding development of industry and free market. Monopolies appeared which sharpened the struggle for the sales and raw materials markets between the leading imperialistic states between the First and Second World Wars, which are viewed more and more often as two stages of one world war.

The co-evolutionary transition of the eighth epochal cycle is «opened» by the events of the Great Depression (1929-1933) which received the second breath in the period of the 1980s and 1990s, by giving universal and irreversible character to the tendencies. The most important events of the period were as follows: the end of the «cold war» that marked the end of the opposition of two superpowers the USA and the USSR; the Gulf war as the result of the call of Iraq, the regional leader, to the coalition of the leading world states under guidance of the USA; the symbolic fall of the Berlin Wall and the unification of Germany (1989), the disintegration of the USSR (1990-1991) and the creation of new independent states. These events radically changed the geostrategic situation in the world. Whereas the UN Organization had only 51 member-states at the moment of its creation (1949), 185 ones enter it as of December 1994.

The dawn of the post-industrial civilization, related to a tremendous growth of informational technologies and genetic engineering and to the time named «post-modernism» by social philosophers, is only developing in the bosom of the eighth epochal cycle but will become the overall tendency in the new XXI century.

Of more complexity is the task of creating the hypothetical schemes of periodization of a change of epochal cycles for separate regions and specific countries.










Regional-continental (medi) level
of analisys of the historical development

Here, we present a scheme of periodization of epochal cycles for specific regions.

The approach to defining the corresponding territories can be developed on the basis of criteria of the cultural-civilizational approach or geopolitic determinants. We recall the scheme of classification of civilizations, given by Toynbee.

1.Blossomed civilizations.

1.1.Independent civilizations.

1.1.1.Separated. (Mayan and Mexican).

1.1.2.Independent nonseparated. (united Sumerian, Hittite, and Babylonian). (Minoan). (the ancient Chinese and the principal Far Eastern).

1.1.3.Son-kindred, the first group. (from the Sumer-Akkadian, Egyptian and Aegean). (from Aegean). (from Indus-based).

1.1.4.Son-kindred, the second group. Christian. (all from the Syrian and Hellenic).

1.2.Satellite Civilizations.

1.2.1.Mexican (from Meso-American).

1.2.2.Pre-Columbian: in the south-west of North America (from Meso-American).

1.2.3.The Northern Andean (Colombia, Ecuador).

1.2.4.The Southern Andean (Chile, Argentina).

1.2.5.Elamic (from Sumer-Akkadian).

1.2.6.Hittite (from Sumer-Akkadian).

1.2.7.Urartu (from Sumer-Akkadian).

1.2.8.Iranian (from Sumer-Akkadian, then Syrian).

1.2.9.Korean (from Chinese).

1.2.10.Japanese (from Chinese).

1.2.11.Vietnamese (from Chinese).

1.2.12.Italian (from Hellenic).

1.2.13.South-Eastern Asian (from Indian, later from Islamic in Indonesia and Malaysia).


2.Undeveloped Civilizations.

2.1.The first Syrian (absorbed by the Egyptian).

2.2.The Nestorian Christian (absorbed by the Islamic).

2.3.Monophysite Christian (absorbed by the Islamic).

2.4.The Far West Christian (absorbed by the Western).

2.5.The Cosmos of the Mediaeval City-State (absorbed by the Western).

3.Frozen Civilizations.





The development of the civilizational approach to the historical analysis is connected with the theory of «clash of civilizations», which is popular now. The American politologist Samuel Huntington argued this thesis by that the differences between civilizations were formed for centuries. Therefore, this differentiation is more fundamental and stable than differences between ideologies and classes and is subjected to variations less of all. That is why, the conflicts of the 21st century will shift from political and ideological borders to the lines of contact of civilizations.

The contemporary picture of civilizations is identified, first of all, with the main world religions Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism. The mentioned spiritual systems spread to the whole continents, exerting their influence upon the past, the present, and the future of these megaterritories.

The following cultural regions may be distinguished in the process of research of the history of the worlds culture: Arabian Muslim, Far Eastern, Indian, African (including the regions of West Africa, Central Africa, East Africa, and South Africa), Latin-American, European and North American.

The differentiation of territories, which are under control of the naval or land forces, and marginal coastal areas is traditional for geopolitics. In the global context, the attention is focused at the level of separate continents.

In our opinion, the continental-civilizational approach will be the most optimal when researching the process of change of epochal cycles at the regional level. This approach is one of the grounds for the sample of separate countries, whose history will appear in the context of our research.

The first (the most unique from the standpoint of saturation with historical events, the population, and the presence of all three world religions) continent is Eurasia, consisting, from geographical point of view, of the western «peninsula» Europe (from the Atlantic to the Urals), West, Central, and South-East Asia.

The second object of our analysis will be America (North, Central, South). The dominant religion on the continent is the Christianity in the Catholic or Protestant interpretation.

The third continent Africa (West, Central, East, and South). «The Black Continent» from the standpoint of religion is presented by the symbiosis of Islam, heathen beliefs, and Christianity.

And, finally, we analyze Australia in the context of our research. Christianity, Islam (a part of the immigrants from Asia), and the beliefs of native Aborigines are presented there. Thus, only Antarctica, «terra incognita» is out of the research. The chronological scale will remain the same from 3000 BC to 2000 AD.


We have already noted that Eurasia, of course, has the most bright and impressive history. Abstracting from the formal civilizational differences, we define the contours of epochal cycles for Asia and Europe. First of all, the analogies with contrasts of the historical development of the West and the East arise in this context. From the point of view of relatively big cycles, «the Asian model» is universal and the Western one is unique hereat, however, on the boundary of the third millennium under the influence of the global process of westernization, everything is presented vice versa. We emphasize that the roots of the Ancient Greek civilization, traditionally considered to be an ancestor of the European civilization, are in the heritage of the Mycenaean culture (2900-1470 BC), which in fact is the symbiosis of the interaction between nations of the Mediterranean ecumene and nations of the Asia Minor.

The most ancient early state formations of China, Mesopotamia, and India (Mohenjo-Daro) (4000-3000 BC) emerged under conditions of the Neolithic revolution. Thereby, the first stage of the first epochal cycle begins, in fact, for both Europe and Asia. The second stage of the cycle involutionary one is connected with the development of traditional agricultural civilizations in Mesopotamia (The Old Babylonian kingdom near 1900-1600 BC), China, and India.

The co-evolutionary stage of the cycle is related to certain changes. China: near 1766 BC the victory of the union of tribes Shan over Sa. Interfluve. The strengthening of the Hittites. 1750 BC the Law of Hammurabi. Crete: 1700-1400 BC the period of new palaces. Mynos.

The end of the first epochal cycle in Eurasia is identified with the evolutionary stage. The development of the Achaean civilization in Greece and Middle Assyrian Kingdom in Asia Minor (1500-1100 BC).

The second epochal cycle for Eurasia begins with the revolutionary stage of emergence of the polis system in Greece (13-12th centuries BC) that created the fundamental sociocultural distinctions between the «West» and the «East».

The involutionary stage of the second epochal cycle is connected with traditionalism of the Shan-In period in Ancient China (XIII-XII centuries BC), and the co-evolutionary stage began with events of the Trojan War (1190-1180 BC). The second epo

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